Long-term outlook?

Discuss Northern Arizona weather and forecasts here.
Waterman
Posts: 28
Joined: October 19th, 2010, 7:58 am

Long-term outlook?

Postby Waterman » October 21st, 2010, 4:28 am

Alright,

The spammer "Jack" whoever needs to go. Serious disruption to the board.

Anyone know any updates for the long-term outlook? It's hard to believe we're in for a dry winter with this unusually wet and cold fall.

Anyone?

-Will

maadjurguer
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Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby maadjurguer » October 21st, 2010, 7:39 am

I agree on the spam-Jack.... permanent ban IMO. As for outlook, I'm also having a tough time reconciling the long term forecast with our recent weather....my only guess is that it's a continuation of the strong moisture pattern we've had over the last year.....and that this is the tail end of it???? But it's guess a SWAG
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dolomite
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Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby dolomite » October 21st, 2010, 11:38 am

This forum has obviously got bigger problems than just jack. Esie has joined the ranks of spammers here, too.

I'm definitely anxious about what this winter may bring. I talk to the Flag natives and they say that we're just immune to La Nina here (I guess it's been proven in the past?). But NOAA is freaking me out. We might have to get used to the commute to S. CO!

zesue
Posts: 19
Joined: October 21st, 2010, 3:12 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby zesue » October 21st, 2010, 3:31 pm

i stick to the believe it when i see it stance on weather in flag. I'm getting ready to make some board repairs and getting psyched on the season non-the less. Until then happy biking.

maadjurguer
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Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby maadjurguer » October 21st, 2010, 4:36 pm

yah....I saw a graph of the El Nino/La Nina cycles compared to snowbowl snowfall and I believe the correlation was weak at best....some El Nino's suck....and some La Nina's rock. I'm still up for a Ullr ceremony to burn some 130's if anyone has any left.
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Willy
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Joined: October 24th, 2010, 6:27 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Willy » October 24th, 2010, 6:49 pm

This isn't just a la nina winter, we are in cool / negative phases of both PDO and ENSO. That's a double whammy because a negative PDO phase compounds la nina's effects. There's a great discussion about that here: http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=1575

Moreover, this isn't just any la nina, it's the most pronounced la nina since 1955, and its strengthening at a rate even greater than 1955. There's a great discussion about that here: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/#discussion

Chances are we'll have a dry winter in northern Arizona. I, like you, hope I'm wrong.

zesue
Posts: 19
Joined: October 21st, 2010, 3:12 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby zesue » October 25th, 2010, 9:03 am


Willy
Posts: 47
Joined: October 24th, 2010, 6:27 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Willy » October 25th, 2010, 10:16 am

Indeed, the November, December, January three-month precipitation forecast has us near normal. But each of the following three-month precipitation forecasts put us below average. I suspect this reflects a predicted fading of the cool-moist conditions we've been seeing this fall. Those maps are here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/p.gif

Last fall local NOAA staff analyzed past winter precip as it related to El Nino. They showed high variability in weak El NInos, but a strong and consistent propensity for wetter-than-average winters with positive sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 1deg C.

It would be interesting to know if similar relationships exist between winter moisture and different degrees of negative sea surface temperature anomaly, and the degree to which that may be tempered by the negative PDO and positive AMO phasing now underway.

In any case, here are recent winter season (Oct - Apr) precipitation, snowfall, and ENSO phase data for Flagstaff from NOAA's website:

1995-1996 / 2.83" / 28.5" / La Niña
1996-1997 / 9.30" / 107.5" / Normal
1997-1998 / 2.50" / 136.4" / El Niño
1998-1999 / 9.46" / 71.5" / La Niña
1999-2000 / 5.54" / 74.4" / La Niña
2000-2001 / 12.09" / 125.1" / Normal
2001-2002 / 4.02" / 38.9" / Normal
2002-2003 / 8.51" / 54.9" / El Niño
2003-2004 / 7.95" / 50.9" / Normal
2004-2005 / 26.63" / 130.6" / El Niño

1971-2000 Normals / 14.27" / 108.2"

zesue
Posts: 19
Joined: October 21st, 2010, 3:12 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby zesue » October 25th, 2010, 12:46 pm

http://www.mpcer.nau.edu/files/flagstaff_climate_history.pdf
Interesting paper, the general trend is dryer and warmer, but anomalies like last year are always possible.
Northern AZ, on many of the maps sited seems to be on the cusp of the southern predictions. We always seem to be a little chaotic here.

Chris Marshall
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Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Chris Marshall » October 27th, 2010, 10:33 am

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html
Good jumping off site for climate prediction.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... enso.shtml
Good jumping off site for ENSO information.
KPAC board of directors

dolomite
Posts: 41
Joined: October 6th, 2010, 5:26 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby dolomite » October 27th, 2010, 9:17 pm

Chris Marshall wrote:http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html
Good jumping off site for climate prediction.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... enso.shtml
Good jumping off site for ENSO information.


I think everyone in this thread has seen that information. The issue is with the interpretation. Some of us are a little more wishful Image

Waterman
Posts: 28
Joined: October 19th, 2010, 7:58 am

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Waterman » October 29th, 2010, 12:16 am

Reypulio,

Are you the new board administrator? We had quite a few posts last year and I'm sad that they went bye-bye. Would have been nice to reference those.

Back to the thread, I might change my original post and add a list of all these links. Good stuff.

dolomite
Posts: 41
Joined: October 6th, 2010, 5:26 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby dolomite » October 29th, 2010, 3:28 pm

I'm pretty sure Reypulio is just another damn spammer. We definitely need a worthwhile admin on this board to stop this influx of spambots.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » October 30th, 2010, 1:30 pm

"Count the inches as they fall". We wlll have to wait and see how this La Nina works itself out. I have been on the mountain for over 30 years working and playing and have never seen 2 years alike. I will post weather from Snowbowl as it happens. I actually feel optimistic at this point in the Fall. Stay tuned

tripice351
Posts: 79
Joined: October 31st, 2010, 12:01 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby tripice351 » October 31st, 2010, 2:07 pm

2nd on wondering why the board got blanked out from last year.. and please, whoever is running this show, I'm pretty sure you could get some volunteer regulars to moderate the spam.

Been watching the webcams from the Valley.. the 4 inches of fury last week would have been great to see from the base area after the fog rolled out and before it melted. :( Anyone got any good pics to post?

Screw La Nina, we don't need her.. praise Ullr!
Marc aka tripice351

Willy
Posts: 47
Joined: October 24th, 2010, 6:27 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Willy » November 5th, 2010, 4:51 pm

For those who enjoy geeking-out counting SST anomalies until we can count inches of snow (or not), here's this week's ENSO update from the Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Waterman
Posts: 28
Joined: October 19th, 2010, 7:58 am

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Waterman » November 6th, 2010, 2:04 am

Alright KPAC, if you need a volunteer to run the board (and kill SPAM), you've got a hand up right here.

dolomite
Posts: 41
Joined: October 6th, 2010, 5:26 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby dolomite » November 7th, 2010, 8:44 pm

Yep, I've sent a PM to the admin to offer my assistance in controlling spam. There are two willing and able people here!

edit: oh and thanks Willy for the link; should be enough to keep the mind off the near-record highs we've been having.

maadjurguer
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Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby maadjurguer » November 9th, 2010, 9:51 am

Hey all, you should now notice that the SPAM is being managed with the offending posts deleted and IP bans in effect. Thanks for your patience.

Cheers,
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tripice351
Posts: 79
Joined: October 31st, 2010, 12:01 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby tripice351 » November 9th, 2010, 8:57 pm

Good job cleaning it up Maad. We all appreciate it.

Looks like another dusting went down, but this time down in town too.. with another weak one forecasting for wednesday night. Weak storms altogether tho, hopefully by the time the jetstream rolls our way, they will be bigger.
Marc aka tripice351

Willy
Posts: 47
Joined: October 24th, 2010, 6:27 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Willy » November 9th, 2010, 10:44 pm

Okay, I've got some red meat for this board.

First... This week's NOAA ENSO update. Same link as before, but linked to updated PDF (8 Nov): http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf No change from earlier dire predictions: Polar dust bowl hell winter for N. AZ.

But then there's this from Stu's weather website... A lone outlier prediction calling for average temps and precip this winter in N. AZ. Check it out: http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/2009_10_winter_el_nino_very_different_from_1997_98/

Image

Image

And if you'd rather listen than read, here's a fireside chat with the author talking about his prediction to crappy jazz: http://www.weatherjazz.com/WXJazz034.mp3

The argument here is basically that a low solar radiation phase will mitigate the effects of the unfavorable ENSO, PDO and AMO phases that are driving the other models. It causes a colder winter in the polar arctic and northern tier; we'd be catching storms out of the NW - sorta like 2000/01 (which was endlessly soft and lovely).

Image

The author of this blog was the first managing meteorologist and co-founder for The Weather Channel. And for disclosure purposes, this guy is also somewhat of a climate change denier - an outlier climatologist with outlier predictions that contrast with what the NOAA scientists predict:

Image

But it's a shred of hope for those hoping to shred.

Willy
Posts: 47
Joined: October 24th, 2010, 6:27 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby Willy » November 11th, 2010, 7:58 am

New FLG NOAA presentation on this winter's La Nina: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/LaNina/player.html

WhiskeyTangoFox
Posts: 8
Joined: November 11th, 2010, 6:21 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby WhiskeyTangoFox » November 11th, 2010, 6:32 pm

In the words of Bill Murray in Groundhog Day:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7amSrgtINI

The weather will be fluctuating for a very long time....

tripice351
Posts: 79
Joined: October 31st, 2010, 12:01 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby tripice351 » November 12th, 2010, 9:41 pm

From the Old Farmers Almanac.. Current long range predictions. (Flagstaff is in the "south" of this zone, called Intermountain)

November looks dull for us.. but then this:

DECEMBER 2010: temperature 34 ° (3 ° above avg.); precipitation 2" (0.5" above avg.); Dec 1-9: Snowy periods, turning colder; Dec 10-13: Sunny, cold; Dec 14-17: Snow showers north, heavy snow south; cold; Dec 18-21: Snow to rain north, sunny south; Dec 22-28: Snowy periods, cold; Dec 29-31: Rain, then sunny, mild.
Marc aka tripice351

dolomite
Posts: 41
Joined: October 6th, 2010, 5:26 pm

Re: Long-term outlook?

Postby dolomite » November 18th, 2010, 4:59 pm

looks like a big storm is coming in on saturday and extending possibly to the middle of next week. precipitation forecasts are measuring in feet but I haven't been able to pinpoint where the storm will hit exactly. never too early to get a good base! (unless it's groppel).


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