January Weather

Discuss Northern Arizona weather and forecasts here.
Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 2nd, 2012, 6:34 am

Here it is 1-1-12 and La Nina is in full service....Looking like a dry start to the new year with a glimmer of change out there this weekend....Still holding on the North facing terrain with 14 to 28 inches of undisturbed settled snow on the stakes.The wind slab is quite prevelent in most open spaces at treeline and pits are all showing similar stratigraphy with lots of faceted snow between slab layers.....Hmmmm There is some Melt Freeze occurring on the sunny aspects with high daytime temps and cold clear nites. Stay tuned and sharpen your edges.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 6th, 2012, 6:26 am

January 6th, Looking dry and windy this weekend...Forecast not favorable for new snow but great if you like the upper level winds.....At least we are still making turns....its beats the alternative.

tripice351
Posts: 79
Joined: October 31st, 2010, 12:01 pm

Re: January Weather

Postby tripice351 » January 6th, 2012, 10:25 pm

Kaptain.. which direction winds shuts down the lifts, isn't it NE? Forecast for Sunday is currently NE winds 18-25mph, 37mph gusts. I know the forecast will likely change, but if that holds true, how stong do they need to be to shut down the lifts?
Marc aka tripice351

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 7th, 2012, 6:48 am

NE winds and NNE are the ones that cause chair swing...The amount of chair swing is what will determine the lift operations.....it is also the gust differential that will affect things....a constant wind is not as much as a problem...The more North the more the swing...The Lift Manager makes the call and we adjust the operations based on his experience....believe me you don't want to be on a chair that gets derailed by a wind event.....The winds forecasted may or may not cause a delay or shut down....One of the other factors is the drought stressed / beetle kill trees near the line....We had a treetop break and hit the line a couple years ago that would have caused a big deal. I have total respect for the decisions made by our very capable Lift Ops staff....We have not been shut out this year but did have a couple delays.....Check the website for the updates or get on the texting list and you will recieve updates as they occur.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 8th, 2012, 12:18 pm

January 8, 2012 A surprising 4 inches of new snow with very windy conditions.....Chair 1 Agassiz blown out today.......winds should come down by tomorrow...Almost deep Monday

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 15th, 2012, 6:30 am

January 15th, 2012....Hoping for more than the angry inch starting tonight.....Conditions are still reasonable especially below 10800 feet....The wind had done its damage this winter but the short days and long shadows have kept a snowpack below treeline. Settled out to 13 to 27 inches on favorable aspects. A weather pattern change is being suggested keep your fingers crossed....Still open and making turns....Make some for MLK

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 16th, 2012, 3:01 pm

Stardate....January 16th 2012....1500 hrs....3" to 4" New snow on the ground....undisturbed settled base of 15 to 30......riming conditions early this morning clearing starting to take place this afternoon.....winds strong upslope with good forcing below treeline....Conditions at the ski area are best its been in a month. Hopefully the pattern change plays out favorably this next weekend....We are open despite any rumors you may here....ski ya here.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 21st, 2012, 3:37 pm

January 21st. 2012....Rime storm all day long producing a nice rime / rain crust. Not much snow so far but hopefully it arrives soon....windy and cold with extreme conditions at elevation....Lost hikers on the Peaks today. Good Luck SAR

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 23rd, 2012, 6:29 am

January 22 8 am.......3" of new snow wind driven and 70 mph N wind gusts relaxing by noon....Chair one on hold .....Loaded public at 12 pm. Skiing was good despite 3 inches of fresh pinecones and debris. Forecast looking good, we will count them as they fall. Surfs up

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 24th, 2012, 7:26 am

January 24th 2012, 3" new not sure what happened to all the forecasted snow but it did flurry all day yesterday and skiing is good.....Not enought to open new terrain....La Nina is in control this year.

Stormlover
Posts: 38
Joined: November 18th, 2010, 8:21 pm

Re: January Weather

Postby Stormlover » January 24th, 2012, 8:28 am

Skunked again :cry: Fantasy charts show the next best chance for a pattern change around Feb 6-10.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 315
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: January Weather

Postby Kaptain Safe T » January 25th, 2012, 8:32 am

Jan, 25 2012..."When it snows it snows and when it don't it blows" A quote from a wise old sage some years ago.....2 days of strong 40 to 60 plus NE winds.....yikes. Check out the Agassiz data logger real time info.

splitboarder
Posts: 174
Joined: November 9th, 2010, 9:07 pm
Contact:

Re: January Weather

Postby splitboarder » January 27th, 2012, 4:39 pm

so I was looking at my journal/diary and I noticed that snow play had been fairly good for me for 7 of the last 8 January s. So I decided to do a little data digging and came up with this.
Image

Can ya tell which January had no snow play? :roll:

I finally got out and rode the lifts at snowbowl for the first time this year. If you are on the fence then I would recommend it. I had a great time. Sure my board took a beating but whatever. Spring skiing in january!!!!
Troy Marino is a splitboarder and on the KPAC board of directors.
KPAC Snow Summary.
Future Guidebook?!

raisingarizona
Posts: 172
Joined: November 28th, 2010, 8:01 am

Re: January Weather

Postby raisingarizona » January 29th, 2012, 9:16 am

Well we are that much closer to another big El Nino year. I just got back from Jackson on Thursday, it was ridiculous! I got there at the peak of the cycle on the previous Friday. I think they got around 8 feet of snow or so. I'm still hopeful that February is going to produce a strong two week cycle for us. I'm a little down on skiing here now, it's been two years since I have had a good day up on the ridge towards Humps, two years is a little too much. :( Fingers crossed for February.

Stormlover
Posts: 38
Joined: November 18th, 2010, 8:21 pm

Re: January Weather

Postby Stormlover » January 29th, 2012, 2:28 pm

Jan 1991, 1996, and 2002 stand out as equally if not more dismal than 2012. Not sure if those correlate with La Nina years or not.


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