Hope for the (not-too-distant) future

Discuss Northern Arizona weather and forecasts here.
Uglyhat
Posts: 11
Joined: December 24th, 2010, 8:53 pm
Location: Flagstaff

Hope for the (not-too-distant) future

Postby Uglyhat » December 31st, 2011, 1:47 pm

As my altimeter reads a good 500' higher than it should, and my thermometer about 20 degrees so, I take heart in knowing that synoptic scale forecasting is like reading tea leaves. La nina winters are as unpredictable as the rest, and statistics (another black art) are used precisely because there are tails with outliers on either side of our distribution.

What I mean by this is, it could snow next week. Rather nicely in fact. Here's a couple links to a blog I read as much as I read any of the forecasting sites, and it helps me take the weather gurus with a grain of salt.

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... bogus.html

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... ecast.html

Keep the faith, our rewards will come.

Willy
Posts: 47
Joined: October 24th, 2010, 6:27 pm

Re: Hope for the (not-too-distant) future

Postby Willy » January 3rd, 2012, 2:11 pm

That's one of my favorite weather blogs too. Of course, there are two sides to the model ensemble coin: It could snow far more than the ensemble suggests, or it could snow far less or not even any at all. In the case of late this week, unfortunately, the latter seems to be shaping up.

With the exception of the far northern Pacific Northwest, and, at least by the year-to-date-departure numbers here in the Southwest too, it's dry--and in fact really dry--just about everywhere in the West. Pretty remarkable, really.

raisingarizona
Posts: 172
Joined: November 28th, 2010, 8:01 am

Re: Hope for the (not-too-distant) future

Postby raisingarizona » January 3rd, 2012, 6:18 pm

It's getting downright scary. Forget about the skiing, I'm thinking about the incoming fire season. :cry:

Willy
Posts: 47
Joined: October 24th, 2010, 6:27 pm

Re: Hope for the (not-too-distant) future

Postby Willy » January 3rd, 2012, 9:37 pm

Yeah, a good year to be a fire-camp BBQ contractor for the feds... Cha-ching.

Check this out: This season's weird La Nina far-northwest and far-southwest snow trend -- a trend leaving everyone between high and dry -- is reflected in the 22 deepest ski resort snow packs in North America as of a few days ago:

#1 – Eagle Crest, AK = 150″ (Ski Shames in B.C. -- inland due east of the Queen Charlotte Islands -- is at 134" too, but wasn't listed by the source I got these data from...)

#2 – Alyeska, AK = 104″

#3 – Mount Baker, WA = 95″

#4 – Alpenta, WA = 82″

#4 – Snoqualmie, WA = 82″

#5 – Mount Seymour, B.C. = 76″

#6 – Whistler Blackcomb = 75″

#7 – White Pass, WA = 72″

#8 – Steven’s Pass, WA = 71″

#9 – Schwitzer, ID = 69″

#9 – Cypress Mountain, B.C. = 69″

#10 – Crystal Mountain, WA = 68″

#11 – Whitewater, B.C. = 66″

#12 – Lookout Pass, ID = 64″

#13 – Ski Apache, NM = 63″

#13 – Revelstoke, B.C. = 63″

#13 – 49 Degrees North, WA = 63″

#13 – Fernie, B.C. = 63″

#14 – Taos, NM = 62″

#15 – Sunrise Park, AZ = 60″

#15 – Timberline Lodge, OR = 60″

#15 – Silverton, CO = 60″

ricorides
Posts: 32
Joined: November 24th, 2010, 3:50 pm

Re: Hope for the (not-too-distant) future

Postby ricorides » January 5th, 2012, 7:45 am

This is awesome,
Image
It looks like my niece's coloring. :D
I watched Lee Born's forecast on Facebook last night, the bottom line being, it looks to be nice and warm until the 20th. I think there's going to be some time well spent in the sun in Sedona this weekend.

Thanks for giving me some hope!

raisingarizona
Posts: 172
Joined: November 28th, 2010, 8:01 am

Re: Hope for the (not-too-distant) future

Postby raisingarizona » January 5th, 2012, 9:26 am

this is just a little too weird, it's sort of scary too.


http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/fi ... large.html



I like the new forum layout, thanks guys!


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