Deep February ?

Discuss Northern Arizona weather and forecasts here.
Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 9th, 2011, 8:49 am

Deep tuesday on 2-7-11. Its amazing what a couple inches will do for the surface of the snowpack.....2 inches fell early Tuesday morning before the sun came up.....The powder hounds were out in limited numbers and no lift lines at all. Looking like the persistant NE winds picking up once again post frontal. "Carpe Ski Um" Hopefully February moistens up a bit.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 11th, 2011, 6:51 am

The conditions are still quite good on the hill wtih fresh roy everyday......Looking like a possible change coming next week.....There may be a wee bit of corn developing this weekend with warm temps and light winds......Ski ya there

dbski
Posts: 6
Joined: November 13th, 2010, 1:29 pm

Re: Deep February ?

Postby dbski » February 12th, 2011, 2:08 am

Long-range forecast models continue to suggest a large-scale hemispheric pattern shift with a realignment of waves 1-5. Most important change is the high-latitude retrogression of the Hudson Bay vortex to the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in the eastern Pacific ridge progressing eastward across NOAM with a trough developing in the eastern Pacific.

With this large scale pattern in place there is a better chance of moisture and storms reaching Arizona.

La Nina remains firmly in place, however, and the large-scale hemispheric pattern is expected to quickly revert back to the previous pattern.

db

Stormlover
Posts: 38
Joined: November 18th, 2010, 8:21 pm

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Stormlover » February 12th, 2011, 10:44 pm

dbski wrote:Long-range forecast models continue to suggest a large-scale hemispheric pattern shift with a realignment of waves 1-5. Most important change is the high-latitude retrogression of the Hudson Bay vortex to the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in the eastern Pacific ridge progressing eastward across NOAM with a trough developing in the eastern Pacific.

With this large scale pattern in place there is a better chance of moisture and storms reaching Arizona.

La Nina remains firmly in place, however, and the large-scale hemispheric pattern is expected to quickly revert back to the previous pattern.

db


blah blah baaa. Come on, for the love of Ullr waves 1-5?. I'm just a weather hobbyist and I'm with you on the high latitude blocking but dumb it down for us that don't pretend to understand what a hudson bay vortex is. eh what?
Last edited by Stormlover on February 13th, 2011, 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 13th, 2011, 6:33 am

Surfs up this weekend bring the hawain shirts and skirts.....I smell pineapples.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 19th, 2011, 6:22 am

Here she comes......3 to 5 already this morning.....We did recieve 2 inches of "rime ice" on the 17th which may make for an interesting layer or bed surface combined with the wind slab and melt freeze. This cycle is coming in fairly warm and wet providing us with much needed snow.....There will be a fair amount of weight to the snowpack as well....Just a freindly reminder that most activity will occur during and right after the storm....choose your lines carefully. Models hinting at another system later this next week....Yahooooooo

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 20th, 2011, 6:13 am

Looking good with a fresh blanket of snow once again.....23 to 27 inches in the last 24 hours......Strong winds aloft yesterday with huge transport and particulate suspension happening all day.....The prevailing direction was from the South but significant rotor and mechanical disturbance made for extreme upslope winds on the Bowl side.....We will mitigate the hazard in Bowl when we can get a look at it Monday morning......more snow in the forecast with less wind today.....enjoy the freshiez
The mesowest anemometer is rimed up again but we will get it spinning soon.

raisingarizona
Posts: 172
Joined: November 28th, 2010, 8:01 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby raisingarizona » February 20th, 2011, 5:05 pm

Today was fun. :mrgreen:

Stormlover
Posts: 38
Joined: November 18th, 2010, 8:21 pm

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Stormlover » February 20th, 2011, 6:01 pm

That was indeed a really good day. I hope SAR and Ski Patrol don't spend the night looking for lost south-siders.

dolomite
Posts: 41
Joined: October 6th, 2010, 5:26 pm

Re: Deep February ?

Postby dolomite » February 20th, 2011, 7:43 pm

were you guys in the bc? if so, can you weigh in on the instability discussion in the westside observations forum?

Stormlover
Posts: 38
Joined: November 18th, 2010, 8:21 pm

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Stormlover » February 20th, 2011, 10:08 pm

dolomite wrote:were you guys in the bc? if so, can you weigh in on the instability discussion in the westside observations forum?


Just slackcountry for me. No whumpfing or other signs of instability. Didn't do anything but some probe poling. Lots of nice low density snow on top of the stuff that came in wet and heavy with lots of wind yesterday.

tripice351
Posts: 79
Joined: October 31st, 2010, 12:01 pm

Re: Deep February ?

Postby tripice351 » February 20th, 2011, 10:36 pm

Deep February indeed.. as in knee-deep, blower dry powder all over the place. Best day of the season for me so far. It's the really good days like today that make up for all the bad days.
Marc aka tripice351

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 21st, 2011, 5:46 am

Anther 7 to 12 by 3:00 pm and just starting to break when I left yesterday...Strom totals are over 44 at Midwqy 10,800. The Avy 1 class was working on pits all day at 11,600 feet NW facing aspects of the upper Bowl area and reported fairly good stability. We will be mitigating with explosives this morning and hope to have the Upper Bowl open today.......Unfortunately the Mesowest Data Logger took a big hit from the rime and wind and will not be providing wind info until the new parts arrive, hopefully later this week. Looks like we lost some other functions as well this morning....Stay tuned and enjoy the Pow Pow.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 22nd, 2011, 10:11 am

Total snowfall from this cycle 32 to 47 inches yahooo....We did some hazard reduction yesterday with some sympathetic releases in the wind loaded pockets of the Shiprocks but otherwise no results from 72 pounds of explosives. A few random shot placements were initiated to test different slope angles and aspects and produce fracture resitant coulmns. All in alll the wind had its way with the terrain above treeline. Ski conditions lower are much better with deeper coverage. Get some on ya

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 24th, 2011, 6:49 am

Another angry inch on 2-23-11 with more juice coming this weekend.....forecast is looking favorable once again except for the wind.....Should be epic skiing with some challenging winter conditions during the storm. The mountain is skiing nicely with the snowpack providing mostly good cover on the shady side of things......This is what makes our backyard so magical. Ski like you mean it.

Kaptain Safe T
Posts: 314
Joined: October 30th, 2010, 8:57 am

Re: Deep February ?

Postby Kaptain Safe T » February 28th, 2011, 6:26 am

Total snowfall from this cycle was 12" at 9500 and 17" at 10800 with density around 4%...Utah powder just not as much....192 inches at 10800 YTD with average around 265..not bad for this La Nina....great skiing conditions with good bonding to old snow surface and Upper Bowl open at 1:00 in the afternooon. The slack country and side country is skiing nicely but still beware of the logsitcles out there.....Ski ya there


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